Quantum computing has long been hailed as a revolutionary technology, with the potential to transform industries from pharmaceuticals to finance. But as with many emerging innovations, the journey from promise to practical impact is long, complex—and often misunderstood. The Gartner Hype Cycle offers a useful lens to understand where quantum computing stands today, and what that means for businesses and technology leaders.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical representation of the maturity and adoption of new technologies. It typically features five phases:
A breakthrough or product launch generating early publicity.
Early success stories generate excitement and unrealistic expectations.
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver.
More examples of how the technology can benefit enterprises emerge.
Mainstream adoption takes off.
In 2025, quantum computing finds itself back at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. According to Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle for Deep Technologies, the industry is experiencing renewed hype, partly driven by increased investment, ambitious national strategies, and the premature characterization of 2025 as the “year of quantum.” This resurgence is seen as being at least three years too early for real, widespread business impact.
Quantum computing is not yet actionable for most organizations. The technology is still in its embryonic stage, with hardware and algorithms not mature enough for broad, practical use.
Quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) is expected to become the main delivery model by 2030, but for now, most businesses are still in the exploration or pilot phase.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a related field, is at its own peak of hype, driven by urgent cybersecurity concerns and the need to prepare for future quantum threats.
The quantum computing field has been through cycles of excitement and disappointment. Recent statements from industry leaders suggest that truly useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers may still be 15–30 years away. This has led to concerns about a potential “quantum winter”—a period of reduced investment and enthusiasm. However, the current hype is sustained by significant funding and the hope for breakthrough applications.
Government and enterprise funding is accelerating research and innovation, especially in quantum AI and materials science .
Quantum computing is not ready for mainstream deployment. Focus on understanding potential use cases and building internal expertise.
Prepare for post-quantum security: Start mapping out where and how you use encryption, and work with vendors to ensure quantum-safe solutions are on your roadmap
Conclusion
Quantum computing is once again at the center of tech hype, but practical impact remains several years away.
While the excitement is justified by the technology’s long-term potential, organizations should temper expectations and focus on strategic preparation rather than immediate adoption. The real quantum revolution is still yet to come.
All of this is also reflected in corresponding positioning on the hype cycle.
And as with any emerging technology, the valley of tears must be successfully navigated before truly productive use cases can emerge. Until then, we can expect continued change, bursts of innovation — and likely, a wave of market consolidation just around the corner.
What’s needed to master this phase?
Expertise, long-term vision, and a healthy dose of enthusiasm.